why the HD iPod/Mac PVR ain’t gonna happen
I started feeling vaguely funny about my new 5G 60 GB iPod purchase* upon hearing the rumors that Apple was coming out with Yet Another iPod model. So soon, Apple? The rumors peg the new iPod as having a larger, widescreen format — and some even suggest HD video capability that would tie into a new, HD-enabled AirPort Express and a Front Row sportin’ Intel Mac Mini.
Let’s put aside the problem of sticking decoding hardware capable of decoding HD video into an iPod form factor, which is simply 100% impossible right now. Let’s instead examine the particulars of this beautiful H.264 HD clip, and let’s even start the math with the “lower-res” 480p one**:
81.8 MB / 262 seconds long = .3 MB a second.
2 hour movie = 7,200 seconds.
.3 MB a second x 7,200 seconds = 2,160 MB, or about 2 GB.
So a 60 GB video iPod could hold up to 30 480p HD movies… which, to “buy” one online, you’d have to download 2 GB worth of video for apiece. Which would take upwards of: forever. Or, you could convert your DVDs to an iPod friendly semi-HD-resolution H.264 data format, which given how long Handbrake takes to convert one DVD to a MPEG-4 file of 320 pixels by 240 pixels to fit on the existing iPod, would also take upwards of: forever.
The main problem: neither “30 Movies in Your Pocket” nor “30 Movies on your Mac Mini” have the immediate marketing impact of “1,000 Songs in Your Pocket”.
Plus, I dunno, I think I’d kind of resent those large honking files hoggin’ up all my precious portable hard drive. Keeping 2-4 GB around of sometimes-watched, archived offline video on a DVD is fine, because it’s not clogging up my drive, and the existing low-res 320×240 iPod videos are around 400 MB at movie length, which is right on the edge of acceptable. But who really wants to manage files that are 2 GB a piece on their hard drive? A drag is what it is. If only you could keep video… archived offline… on some sort of removable media… maybe something circley and shiney***.
This isn’t to say that Apple isn’t working on cool stuff along these lines — a larger screen certainly would be nice — and surely the simple fact that I just bought one of the 5G models is enough incontrovertible evidence to indicate to everyone that the 5G model is very soon to be wildly obsolete, stuffed ignominiously in a closet with a ColecoVision Adam, daisywheel printer, and “Buck Rogers” cartridge.
But no, what I’m saying is: file size and hard drive capacity are going to be the big issues with any iPod or PVR that holds anything other than smallish, 22-48 minute, low-res TV shows. TiVo is skirting this issue in their upcoming generation 3 units by allowing for external storage; unfortunately for Apple, external storage for an iPod seems somewhat inelegant.
~jeff
* which, don’t get me wrong, I totally love. I bought it for the capacity; for reasons I won’t get into here, I have enough legally acquired music to fill two of the things. It’s kind of a problem, actually.
** the math for the higher-resolution 720p and 1080p HD formats is even more impractical; 720p is ((219.7 MB/ 262 seconds) x 7,200 seconds) = 6,037 MB, or about 6 GB per movie, with 1080p averaging 7.5 GB per 2 hour movie, making your 60 GB drive hold a whopping 7-9 movies — and nothing else. Hope you like archiving to DL DVD! which completely negates the point, and might actually end up costing more for the archival media than the price of the video you’re archiving.
*** I dare to dream.
Good analysis. Unfortunately it required math thereby leaving out 80% of the population. Besides, what does fact have to do with drug-induced dreams? People will always want the impossible for nothing; we’re hardwired that way. ;-) Thanks for article.
“Buck Rodgers” for the ADAM came on cassette, not a cartridge. :)
But all you’ve invalidated is that Apple will sell hi-rez full length movies (which I haven’t really heard anyone; I’ve heard some whining from the folks who start their day by humping their 42″ plasma screen, but …).
That doesn’t mean Apple can’t provide a PVR (after all, plenty are), a full-video iPod (transfer of data from PVR/PC to iPod is feasible), or even a full-length feature video store at lower resolutions.
And that’s why your argument (however logical) doesn’t really matter.
cudos (i think) to Paul for even admitting he has knowledge of cassette or cartridge…but…
for the very reasons you list HD wont happen on an iPod I would argue this is why it will (i’m assuming the technicalities of it are resolved)…other manufacturers dont have the user base to justify it…Apple does…and Apple wants to be first…and Apple wants to be cool…and if SJ can stand up and say “one more thing” again that can be a very good reason for it to happen. 1000 songs or enough videos from Disney (think $$$$$) to keep you (or your kids) happy on a plane trip to Paris!
I dunno. I bought a new iPod so that I could watch video on a plane trip. Turns out that the whole experience of watching video on an iPod or other handheld device (I stress “handheld”) is not so great.
- First, the handheld bit. Imagine holding your TV as you watch a sitcom. Go ahead, next time you watch “The Simpsons” hold your hands out at about 2 feet. Then imagine doing that for 90 minutes.
- Battery life. I eeked about 2 -1/2 hours from my iPod on a cross-country flight. That left 4 hours without entertainment. And I was watching teeny tiny files, not HD.
I’ve always said that television was a very passive activity. You sit there and the TV does the work, you just absorb it. Watching video on a device like an iPod is an active activity, and it makes the whole experience feel very strange and unsatisfying.
I can’t imagine that Apple will be selling an HD iPod any time soon. Putting up with the annoyances of the whole paradigm is not worth it.
The model will not be exactly the same for video as for music. The current video iPod is basically today’s version of the calculator watch. Techo lust, and oh so cool, but will not be the norm for the long haul.
Rather, Apple’s video plans will be for the “player” (today’s music dominated iPod) to be [drumbroll] … an HDTV set and / or set top box that will have Airport Express type of capability, yet will also include video, in addition to DVR capabilities. In addition, Apple may want to include a DVD player that will be based on Blu-Ray HD playback.
I foresee Apple wanting to sell HDTV’s as the market is ready for them. Apple’s video plans are for people to watch video in their living room. Today’s video iPod is yesterday’s calculator watch.
Just my humble opinion. While the video iPod is cool, its no where near as practical as watching video in the living room, or even in front of an iMac.
Nice to see you did the math. I’ve posted a similar calculation using 480p on other mac-sites. I haven’t really considered the storage issue, as large harddrives are relatively cheap. I just bought a 300gig maxtor for $95, after rebate. That’ll hold plenty of 480p movies. And, at some point you’ll have reasonably priced blu-ray drives that you can archive to.
I was thinking more along the lines of streaming 480p. You need a 2500kbps. If you strip the blackbars, you might get that down to 2000kbps. Check out a few HD 480p movie trailers and you’ll see. Anyhow, 2000kbps is definitely streamable, particularly if you pop some popcorn and let the movie buffer a bit for a head start.
I’m not sure the HD movie store will allow you to store on your harddrive, it may just stream for one-time viewing. A one-time view may be $10 on opening month. $5 afterward. A storable copy, could be like buying a DVD, about $20 retail. Something along those lines might work.
You’re forgetting there are plenty of people happy with their Archos devices and related contraptions, and that’s with, shall we say, rather inconvenient ways of getting the movies instead of the one-click iTMS arrangement.
I’ve plenty of 700Meg movies and 350Meg 1-hour shows that look great both on TVs and on my AV400. Video isn’t like movies – you don’t need to lug around your entire collection, you just need something to watch on your commute or your flight.
I’d say the success of buying TV Shows to watch on the tiny low-res no-battery 5G screen proves your point wrong – if Apple creates a true video iPod, it will sell like hotcakes. Maybe you won’t buy one, but plenty of people will. ;)
Listen… you don’t have to say “30 movies in your pocket”. First, and foremost the iPod will always be a mp3 player… how about “40,000 songs in your pocket, and a few movies too!”
If you go on a several day business trip, you don’t need 30 full length-HD movies… you just need your entire music collection and 2-3 movies to keep you busy on the flight.
Imagine the possibilities!
I can imagine a section in iTunes where you keep all of your movies, and then select movies like you select playlists to put on the iPod before you sync and leave. (for those of us whos music library is larger than our iPod capacity)
Waiter, I will take 40,000 songs… and why don’t you throw in Sin City, Boondock Saints, and…… ya, why don’t you throw in The Big Lebowski too.
To go.
Hey Gene,
I knew a guy in school that had a Song Glasstron with DVD Discman… sort of takes the hand-held problem away from watching TV. He let me use it, and I’ve gotta say that it /was/ pretty cool.
Although, they’ve been discontinued and are considerably more expensive than any iPod.
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=5864872128
Wow that Glasstron thing is so… futuristic! So… dorky! I’m enthralled. It’s Geektastic.
New Movie Reviews…
I couldn’t understand some parts of this article, but it sounds interesting…